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Tribute to 70 Years of Meteorological Achievements Series Reports12. Forecast Forecasts

发布时间:2019年11月25日07:58 Source: China Meteorological News Release time: November 25, 2019 07:58
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China Meteorological News reporter Shen Min Xia Huang Bin

From hand-drawn weather maps, to numerical forecasting, and comprehensive use of multiple methods of human-machine interaction to one-click release of forecast warnings; from traditional qualitative analysis methods to automated, objective, and quantitative forecast analysis Method ... In the 70 years since the founding of New China, China's forecasting and forecasting technology has been continuously upgraded, and its forecasting products have continued to evolve.

Fu today's chase, Fang knows how difficult it is. In an era where satellites, radars, numerical models, and supercomputers do not yet exist, the shoots of meteorological forecasting are difficult to grow. Nowadays, China has built a seamless and grid-based fine weather forecasting business system. The accuracy of weather forecasting has been greatly improved, and it has continuously added new vitality to the improvement of people's well-being and economic and social development in China.

From experience forecasting to modern weather forecasting

In July 1949, Typhoon No. 6 "GLORIA" raged along the eastern coast of China-the Yangtze River raged, the tide came violently, and multiple breakouts on the river and sea banks caused people in Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other places casualties.

In July 2014, the super typhoon "Wimason" landed in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, bringing more than ten hours of storms. However, according to accurate forecasts, Zhanjiang deployed ahead of time, creating a "zero death" anti-typhoon miracle.

Over the past 70 years, the meteorologists' concerns and tensions have not been reduced by half each time a typhoon strikes, but the ever-increasing level of forecasting and forecasting has gradually increased their calmness and confidence. In recent years, the 24-hour error in the forecast of typhoon paths in China has stabilized at about 70 kilometers, and all time-effect forecasts have surpassed the United States and Japan, reaching internationally leading levels.

Not only is typhoon forecasting, the accuracy of forecasting of precipitation, lightning, fog-haze, sand and dust has also been improved as a whole.

In 1998, the entire Yangtze River flooded. At that time, the Central Meteorological Observatory and most of the provincial meteorological observatories had significantly better results in severe catastrophic weather forecasts than in the 1980s. Under the leadership of the party and government, the army and the people fought bravely to fight against floods, which greatly reduced the damage caused by the disaster, and finally achieved a major victory in the fight against floods.

On September 9, 2019, a large-scale rain storm engulfed northern China. The forecaster used the GRAPES forecasting model with a resolution of 3 kilometers and quickly captured its trace through a rigorous observation network. With the torrential rain and the early warning signals of the thunder and lightning strikes, various defense departments coordinated to eliminate the impact of a local catastrophic torrential rain.

From empirical forecasting methods to modern weather forecasting methods, from rough qualitative analysis to objective, quantitative forecasting, to today's seamless full coverage intelligent weather forecasting, for 70 years, under the leadership of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the weather forecasting and forecasting system Increasingly perfect, the level of meteorological forecasting has been continuously improved, and the climate business capability has been significantly enhanced: the accuracy rates of 24-hour weather, rain, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature predictions in the country have reached 86.7%, 80.4%, and 84.5%, respectively. The advance of convective warning time reaches 38 minutes, and the forecast level of typhoon track continues to lead the world; the accuracy rate of the national fog-haze process forecast is over 80%, and the time-lapse of fog-haze grid forecast is extended to 5 days; visibility and PM2.5 concentration forecast The time limit is extended to 10 days, and the accuracy rate of monthly atmospheric pollution prediction in key areas is 73%. In terms of climate prediction, the 2018 national monthly precipitation forecast score was 69.4 points, and the monthly average temperature forecast score was 81.1 points; the flood season precipitation forecast score was 76 points, and the temperature forecast score was 95 points, all of which are the best in history.

Forecast capabilities have been continuously improved, and service benefits have become more significant. "I watch the weather forecast carefully every day, and now the forecast is getting more and more accurate." Yuan Longping, the father of hybrid rice, was so sure. "According to the refined weather forecast, we can implement precise irrigation and precise fertilization to achieve the purpose of saving water, increasing efficiency and increasing production." Zhang Qiuhong, a large grain grower in Xuchang City, Henan Province, praised this.

Forecasts never stop. Adhering to the people-centered development ideology, taking the modernization of meteorology as the starting point, and constantly improving the accuracy of forecasts and predictions are always the lifeline and the constant choice of meteorological workers. All this is to realize the people's longing for a better life. In 2018, the national public satisfaction with meteorological services was 90.8 points, a record high over the years.

Create seamless full coverage intelligent weather forecast from site to grid

Behind the meteorological service Guanghui people is the rapid development of weather forecasting technology. Looking back on 70 years, China's weather forecast has gone through a process of upgrading from qualitative and descriptive forecasts to digital and gridded forecasts.

Once, the meteorological department issued weather phenomena, high and low temperature, and wind speed and direction forecasts mainly for more than 2,400 towns. At present, China has established a live analysis and intelligent grid forecasting service with a resolution of 5 kilometers. It releases the temperature, relative humidity, wind direction, daily precipitation, and daily maximum and minimum temperature twice a day from 11 to 30 days, 24 hours interval. Forecasting, making separate forecasts for towns and township stations has long been history.

At present, China has initially constructed a seamless weather forecasting business system including weather monitoring, mesoscale analysis, near-range forecasting, short-term forecasting, short-term forecasting, medium-term forecasting and extended forecasting. The degree of refinement of the forecast has been significantly improved, and the transformation from a single weather scale analysis to a comprehensive analysis has been realized. The precipitation forecast has achieved a transition from a qualitative falling area to a fixed point and a quantitative grid. The basic realization of severe weather monitoring and early warning and 30-day aging Forecasting services, as well as the operational operation of 5 km of land (10 km in the sea of responsibility) and 10 weather elements in the future.

At the beginning of the development of the meteorological industry, weather forecasting was the main tool for making weather forecasts. Mappers needed to fill in tens or even hundreds of thousands of data and symbols on the weather maps, and then the forecasters performed manual analysis. Lack of observation data, simple calculation tools, and strong subjective prediction conclusions.

In 1996, the new-generation weather forecast human-computer interaction processing system (MICAPS) organized and developed by the China Meteorological Administration was put into operation, which not only realized the shift from manual operations to human-computer interaction, but also greatly improved the efficiency of short- and medium-term weather forecasting, marking The research and development capability of China's comprehensive analysis and processing system of meteorological information has reached a new level.

Today, MICAPS4.0, which is independently developed in China, is officially operating and has been promoted and applied in 31 provinces. The intelligent weather forecast with MICAPS as the core has developed rapidly, and the efficiency of major catastrophic weather forecasting such as typhoons, cold waves, and heavy rain has been greatly improved; MICAPS-GFE1.2 realizes commercial operation, and can revise all factors including precipitation, temperature, and wind, and preliminary implementation Grid forecast full business support.

"The accumulation of experience, the advancement of science and technology, and the better use of advanced technical means can enable forecasters to better cope with rain and flood conditions!" Said He Lifu, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory.

From the site to the grid, the seamless full-scale intelligent weather forecast business is in full bloom.

In 2014, the Central Meteorological Observatory released the first smart grid forecast product; in 2017, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, and Shaanxi took the lead in officially launching the smart grid forecast. Fujian ’s 0 to 2 hour minute precipitation prediction resolution based on radar image optical flow method extrapolation reaches 1 km; Guangdong ’s land forecast factors such as temperature, wind, precipitation, and cloud amount can reach 2.5 km in the next 10 days; Tianjin Future 72 Within one hour, the resolution of meteorological forecast including meteorological elements and catastrophic weather fall areas reaches 1 km; the spatial resolution of Shaanxi intelligent grid forecast reaches 3 km, and the forecast for the next two days can be released hour by hour ...

Looking at the vast ocean, China's coastal provinces have established fine-grained meteorological element forecasting and strong convective weather approaching early warning services in coastal areas, and carried out refined forecasts for 139 islands, 54 routes, 67 ports, 7 fishing grounds and oil platforms. Some provinces' meteorological departments have also carried out characteristic forecasting services such as port gradient wind and gust forecasting.

From the introduction of foreign countries to independent innovation in numerical forecasting

In the 70 years since the founding of New China, new weather forecasting technologies have changed with each passing day, and the key core technology supporting business development is numerical forecasting.

In 1956, China's numerical forecasting research just started. In developed countries, the application of numerical forecasting has blossomed everywhere. After the reform and opening up, China has gradually established a relatively complete numerical forecasting business system through the introduction of foreign technologies, and has experienced gradual upgrades of T106, T213, and T639.

Subsequently, the meteorological research and development team based on in-depth understanding and learning from foreign advanced experience, found a numerical forecast independent research and development program suitable for national conditions, completed major core research missions time and time again, and finally engraved China ’s imprint on the “weapon” of numerical forecasting. on--

In 2001, the China Meteorological Administration began to independently develop a new generation of global / regional universal numerical weather forecasting system GRAPES with success in the regional model; in 2006, the GRAPES regional numerical forecasting business system (GRAPES-Meso) was officially put into operation; The GRAPES Global Forecasting System (GRAPES_GFS V2.0) engraved with "China's Intelligent Manufacturing" was officially put into operation; today, the GRAPES Global Four-Dimensional Variational Assimilation System and Global Ensemble Forecasting System have achieved business operations. At this point, a complete GRAPES numerical forecasting system has been established in China.

Chinese meteorologists have made firm progress along the path of independent research and development, and have basically established a numerical weather forecasting business system consisting of a global medium-term weather forecast model, a mesoscale numerical weather forecast model, a global ensemble forecast system, and a tropical cyclone path numerical forecast model. The level of numerical weather forecasts has improved significantly.

With the China Meteorological Administration being officially recognized as the World Meteorological Center in 2017, the GRAPES Global Forecasting System has begun to provide weather forecasting services worldwide, helping the construction of the “Belt and Road” initiative. In 2018, severe drought occurred in Afghanistan. At the request of the Albanian side, the World Meteorological Center (Beijing) established a special service channel for the country on the website, and developed related monitoring and forecasting products. During the impact of typhoon "Weipa" No. 7 in the South China Sea in 2019, the Central Meteorological Observatory and the National Association of Hydrometeorological Forecasts of Vietnam discussed that the monitoring and forecast products provided by our country played a key role in the process of Vietnam ’s meteorological experts in judging the typhoon path and its impact.

Standing at a new starting point, the meteorological department will focus on the global and regional areas, with the core objectives of improving forecast accuracy and promoting the high-quality development of forecast services, with the development of numerical forecasting and intelligent grid forecasting as the main starting point, and modernization driven by informatization. Build a fine, intelligent, seamless forecast and service business that can be monitored throughout the process, and finally have global monitoring, global forecast, and global service capabilities.

(Source: "China Meteorological News" November 25, 2019 First edition responsible editor: Zhang Lin)

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